Who Are the Corbynites, and What Do They Believe? Glen O'Hara Professor of Modern and Contemporary History Oxford Brookes University Email : Rlen.ohara@brookes.ac.uk Web: http://publicpolicypast.bloRSpot.co.uk/ Twitter : @Rsoh31 BBC ft Sign in News Sport Weather iPlayer TV Radio More Search Q NEWS Home UK World Business Politics Tech Science Health Family & Education Entertainment & Arts Stories More - Politics Parliaments Brexit Tom Watson urges Jeremy Corbyn to tackle 'Trotskyist entryism' O 11 August 2016 f # O E < Share IT7H Reshuffle: Lewis is new Tory chairman x © 2 minutes ago Boris Johnson heads back to Foreign Office Top Stories Reshuffle: Lewis is new Tory chairman Theresa May is meeting ministers in No 10 as she makes changes to her cabinet line¬ up. O 7 hours ago Tm not finished' - Murray after surgery O 2 hours ago The biggest moments from the Golden Globes O 8 hours ago General election 2017 'Youthquake' behind Labour election surge divides generations Authoritative Ipsos Mori figures suggest biggest age gap between parties since 1970s as over-55s swing behind Conservatives Young voters, class and turnout: how Britain voted in 2017 Alan Travis Home affairs editor and Caelainn Barr Tue 20 Jun '17 00.01 BST ooo < p 2,358 2,005 /- change m % estimated vote share a nee 2015 Change since 2015 by age: there was a swing to Labour among under 44s, and a swing to the Conservatives among over 55s IKiataUitgillk lUl a '•«*/.>» too HApi - ? ir* JbO Os* i^rtril bt« t>|Uikr ), A l/ uai Wtr. CONSERVATM IBOCM Ipsos MORI l|K> Min (\«.i /- change m % estimated vote share since 2015 Since 2015, swing to Labour among ABCls. Among C2DEs, Conservative vote share up even more than Labour, UKIP down substantially S% 0 % •17% Cl C2 CONSEfiVATM LABOUR LB OCM Ipsos MORI DE icu<» Ifao* MC4 (\M*A The long arc of the great sorting: blue collar C2DEs go Tory, and white collar ABls move to Labour Vote by socio-economic grade Based of a survey of 52.615 GB adults about their vote in the 2017 general election ■ Conservative BUKIP ■ Other ■ Green » SNP BLibDem ■ Labour AB Cl 3 10 ABCl C 2 DE You jOV I yOU9OV.COm June 9-1 Table is 2015 Labour members and Labour supporting non-members: demographics and ideology Members Lab-supporting non-members Average Age 51 52 Male/Female split 62/38 50/50 Percentage of graduates 56 30 Percentage in ABCi group 70 52 Mean left (0) - right (10) placement 2.4 3-0 Source: Tim Bale/ Labour List Table 1. Age related demographics Percentage of members in each age range 18-24 5 4 6 5 25-34 9 12 14 11 35-44 10 12 17 13 45-54 16 15 16 16 55-64 17 27 18 23 65-74 29 25 24 25 75+ 15 4 6 7 [| Con 7 | LD SNP Average age 57 53 52 54 Con Lab LD SNP The Independent's leaked evidence from Hornsey and Wood Green The leaked figures provide a snapshot of the membership surge that followed Jeremy Corbyn’s election as Labour leader in 2015. Contrary to the impression often given that his supporters are young, only 15 per cent of members in Hornsey and Wood Green are under the age of 27. The party’s members are concentrated in the middle-class wards of the constituency. One ward, Stroud Green, has 662 members, which is about 6 per cent of the entire 16+ population of the area. The wards with the smallest memberships are the working-class wards of Woodside, Noel Park and Bounds Green, and the wealthiest ward, Highgate. Table 3. Inveterate joiners? The top five other organizations that UK party members belong to of each party's members who belong National Trust 27 90 •••••• •••••••••••••••• •••••••••••••••* 3d •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••a 10 >a«aaaa*a*aaaaaaaaa*a*aaaaaa«aaaaaaa*a Trade Union 5 32 11 15 RSPB 5 10 9 English Heritage 10 • ••••♦•••••••♦••••••••••••••••••••••a* g 12 . .... *•••*•«••••»••••»••••••••••••••••••»«••••• Saga • «•••••••••••••• •• • • •••••••••••••••♦•• • 6 2 • ••••••••♦••••••••••••••••••••••••••a* 3 ■ aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa 2 * mtmmmmm mbbsshs * l7Ub LD SNP BO Table 2. Region related demographics Percentage of members per region London 12 12 15 1 Rest of South 42 34 45 2 Midlands/Wales 18 21 16 1 North 17 29 18 1 Scotland 10 5 6 96 Con Lab LD SNP Figure 9. Why did party members join up in the first place? To support my party's policies To oppose rivals* policies Belief in party leadership Mixing with like-minded individuals Influence of family, friends and coBaagues Become an elected politician Career reasons To takB part in a teedersft p elecbon (post-2015 members only) 0123456789 10 Importance on a scale of 0-10 • Con •Lab • LD • SNP % party members compared to 5 years ago Figure 18. Are members more or less active? 100% 80% 60% 40% 20 % 0 % Figure 2. Ideology: where do UK party members place themselves and their parties on the, left-right spectrum - and how do they compare to their parties voters? Members’ self-placement Placement of own party Self-placement of voters Left Right • •••••••••••••••••• k- >»••••••• • ••••••• C - - 4 X 123456789 10 • Con • Lab • LD • SNP For Corbyn supporters, 'electability' was not the initial point How Corbyn’s supporters are different 1130 Jeremy Corbyn supporters eligible to vote in the Labour leadership election, plus 4554 current or potential Labour voters Current Labour voters Corbyn Firm Weak Potential supporters Labour Labour Labour Are very/fairly left-wing 81% 40% 25% 15% Admire Tony Benn more than Tony Blair 83% 40% 25% 27% Say Corbyn would make a better Prime Minister than Osborne 96% 43 % 31 % 32% Agree: 'For most goods and services, competition is a good thing’ 20% 38% 42 % 58% Agree: For most goods and services, competition does more harm than good’ 71% 45 % 33 % 25% Say government should do far more to help the poor, by taxing everyone else 67% 38% 26% 19% Support the abolition of private schools 65% 42 % 31 % 25% Support the abolition of the monarchy 65% 34 % 29% 22% YxiGov /ougovcom September 2015 Which two or three, if any, of the following do you think are the qualities most needed in the next Labour leader? Corbyn supporters Smith supporters Is in touch with the concerns of ordinary people 55 65 40 Provides an effective opposition to the Conservative party 48 42 58 Unites the Labour party 32 27 38 Understands what it takes to win an election 28 11 55 Is a strong leader 24 19 30 Takes on powerful interests 21 31 6 Moves the party to the left 19 30 2 Source : Election Data/ YouGov, March 2017 Figure 3. Party members’ views on economic issues Con Goiremment should Lab redistribute income from better off to less well off LD SNP Con Bg business takes Lab advantage of ordinary people LD SNP Con Ordinary working people don't get their fair share of Lab the nation's wealth LD SNP 0 20 40 60 80 100 % of party members who 'agree' or ‘strongly agree' ■ Strongly agree ■ Strongly agree ■ Strongly agree ■ Strongly agree ■ Agree ■ Agree B Agree Agree Figure 4. Party members’ views on social and moral questions 77% Young people today don't have enough respect for traditional British values The death penalty far Lab 1 | 9% seme enmes is the most appropriate sentence LD 1 1 8% Schools should teach children to obey authority Censorship of films and magazines is necessary to uphold moral standards People who break the law should be given stiffer sentences % of party members who 'agree' or 'strongly agree' ■ Strongly agree ■ Agree I Strongly agree Agree I Strongly agree Agree 84% 100 Strongly agree Agree Corbyn supporters hold different foreign policy views to most voters Which THREE of the following do you think represents a threat to world peace today? % saying USA is one of top 3 [Ranki 20 % 8 % % saying USA is the BIGGEST threat to world peace order] % saying Israel s one of top 3 56% 33% % saying Iran is one of top 3 ■ All UK adults ■ Corbyn supporters Source: Opinium, September 2015 How would you sum up your feelings about the United States? 40% All UK adults 36% Corbyn supporters ■ Festive ■ N egative Source: Opinium, September 2015 Declaring for purity: The Guardian's readers If it makes Labour less likely to win then so be it . What is the point of Labour if not to stand up for ordinary working people, whether they are currently in work, sick, disabled or on the scrapheap? There has to be an alternative to pandering to the market. Jeremy offers hope for the future, the promise of a fightback, of resistance to the markets: people and the planet before profit. If it makes Labour less likely to win then so be it. What is the point of winning just to implement Torv-lite policies ? Surveys show a majority of English voters support nationalisation of the railways and the energy companies. They want the NHS to remain in public ownership. Abolition of [student] tuition fees is popular (ask Nick Clegg). Neoliberal unrestrained capitalism has had its day, it is bankrupt and people are fed up having to pay for it. It is destroying our planet, our communities, our services, our children's futures. Someone has to start to fight back and only Jeremy is willing to do it. The other three are careerist politicians. Charles Wells, 48, Liverpool, finance manager Despair at Labour's chances; The Guardian's readers They're all likely to lose us the next election but at least CorEvn will do it with some principles . I don't subscribe to the narrative that Blair was a terrible prime minister or that his reforms were traitorous to Labour's ideals, but I do not believe that Miliband dragged the party as far left as many would have us believe. The "centrist" candidates, such as Kendall, will drag us further right than Blair, into territory I am deeply uncomfortable occupying. Corbyn will drag the party left so that the next attempt to move towards the centre will at least reflect a more genuine centre'. Expectations for Jeremy Corbyn Do you think Jeremy Corbyn will do well or if he remains loader, do you think it is badly as leader of the Labour party? likely or unlikely that Labour will win the next general election?^} ■ Well ■ Badly ■ Likely ■ Unlikely All CR adults Labour voters 30 29 All GB adults Labour voters 17 61 35 P 41 YouGoV| ycugwjco i6,igGBadjLU Sept 15 16 20] Rebecca, 31, Cardiff, administrative worker in further education 'The bigger picture suggests that it will not be easy to dislodge Labour MPs in large numbers. Many have been developing survival strategies. "Get organised" is the advice of one Labour MP who has successfully prevented a hard left takeover of her local party. Canny MPs have been careful to build relations with the new members who have surged into Labour since Mr Corbyn became leader. There is a distinction to be made between the ideologists and the idealists. The ambition of an older generation of hard left activists to take out moderate Labour MPs is often not shared by younger members who love Mr Corbyn, but don't identify with the hard left and aren't attracted by its ugly factionalism'. -Andrew Rawnsley, 'The latest victory for Corbynites creates a conqueror's dilemma', The Observer, 7 January 2018 Conclusions: research agendas • From the 'youthquake' to the 'middle age tremor' • From Millennial fury to Gen X angst • From Trotskyite entryism to latent progressivism • The frustration of the salariat • Universalist public services' role in an era of complexity • Inter-generational concern • The 'surplus of the educated' • Corbynism's populist language and style • The influence of policy entrepreneurship - retailing 'neoliberalism'